Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

Why is doubt an essential ingredient in forecasting? What traps do those who do not doubt initial assumptions fall into? Cite at least three specific examples, either from the text or from your imagination.

Why does Nassim Taleb question the value of forecasting? How do the authors respond to his claims? Address the role of paradox in their response.

To what extent do the authors suggest that anyone can be a superforecaster? What limitations might prevent some people from accessing this rank?